MYANMAR FOCUS: Europe and the Rohingya

A round-up of this week's events and a Q&A with Nay San Lwin on Europe's response to the Rohingya crisis.

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Good morning! Welcome to the latest “Myanmar Focus” edition of Watching Europe In Southeast Asia, written by journalist and columnist David Hutt.

As well as weekly news briefs about Europe-Southeast Asia engagement, this newsletter also brings you exclusive analysis and in-depth Q&As with leading diplomats and businesspeople from both regions.

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— IGOR DRIESMAN, THE EU’S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR MYANMAR, HAD A BUSY WEEK. He was in Bangkok last week to talk about Myanmar to Thailand’s vice-foreign minister, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, whose take from the meeting was that “The EU side affirms support for ASEAN’s & Thailand’s humanitarian efforts.” Then he was off to New Delhi, where he spoke about Myanmar with Smita Pant, who works in the Indian foreign ministry’s division on Bangladesh/Myanmar, and he talked at a roundtable event put on by the Ananta Aspen Centre, an Indian international relations group.

—JOSEP BORRELL, THE EU’S FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF, PUBLISHED AN E-BOOK this week titled Europe Between Two Wars: EU Foreign Policy in 2023 (access it here). Myanmar got seven mentions in the 420-pages, almost all of them regarding ASEAN Centrality. For instance: “Another major internal challenge that hampers ASEAN unity: Myanmar. Since the military coup over two years ago, there has been little, if any, progress in implementing the Five-Point Consensus agreed by ASEAN members and there are increasingly diverging views on how to handle Myanmar.” Or: “I could sense the strong need to preserve ASEAN as a fundamental pillar in today’s uncertain world, no matter the challenges it is confronted with, including Myanmar, DPRK, South China Sea.” Naturally, this doesn’t go down well with those of us who think the EU should pay more attention to Myanmar for its own sake, instead of viewing everything that’s happening in Myanmar through the prism of how it impacts ASEAN, security for other Southeast Asian countries, or geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific.

— THE PRO-JUNTA THE NEW LIGHT OF MYANMAR NEWSPAPER INTERVIEWED THE JUNTA’S CHARGÉ D’AFFAIRES TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC. Htuann Naung, who took up the post in the junta-aligned embassy in Prague last year, gave a rather asinine interview, but it matters because, it would appear, the SAC is trying to alter the narrative in the Czech Republic, a hotbed of pro-NUG activity. Lin Thant, the NUG’s envoy to the Czech Republic, is active across Europe and has forged solid relations with local politicians.

— THE ANNUAL STATE OF SOUTHEAST ASIA SURVEY IS NOW OUT FOR 2024. There are quite a few interesting takes on EU engagement in the region. It would seem that fewer Southeast Asians now trust the EU, compared to last year’s surveys. (I’ll focus on that for tomorrow’s Week In Brief newsletter). But here are a few stats relevant for Europe and Myanmar.

IN THE NEWS

Here’s a nice map of the conflict (per April 3) that was produced by Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge). I’d strongly recommend following him for updates on how the fighting is proceeding.

“The United Nations children’s agency (UNICEF) has said the number of people killed in Myanmar as a result of landmines and explosive ordnance tripled last year, with children accounting for 20 percent of the victims.” (Myanmar deaths from mines, ordnance tripled in 2023: UN, Al Jazeera)

“Myanmar's military was behind dozens of seemingly unrelated Facebook pages spewing hate speech against the Rohingya prior to its dramatic 2017 crackdown against the mostly Muslim minority, a U.N. probe found”... (Myanmar army behind Facebook pages spewing hate speech: U.N. probe, Japan Times)

“By waging terror tactics including burnings, beheadings, mutilations, torching villages, and through a massive aerial bombing campaign that has displaced nearly three million people, the Myanmar military is attempting to control and divide the population through a long-established doctrine of fear and brutality, witnesses and analysts say.” (Burnings and beheadings: Myanmar junta escalates terror tactics against its people, CNN)

“More than 800 people suspected of being cross-border scammers were arrested in a joint police operation by Myanmar and China, the junta and Beijing's embassy in Yangon said…” (807 suspected scammers arrested in Myanmar-China joint operation, AFP)

“Myanmar's ruling general said on Wednesday the junta was holding power only temporarily with the aim of strengthening democracy, and he called for unity among the people and military to fight armed groups seeking to derail plans to hold an election.” (Myanmar junta chief calls for unity, says military holding power 'temporarily', Reuters)

“India plans to spend nearly $3.7 billion to fence its 1,610-km (1,000-mile) porous border with Myanmar within about a decade” (India to spend $3.7 bln to fence Myanmar border, source says, Reuters)

• David Scott Mathieson, “How the Myanmar regime is surviving”, The Interpreter.

• Perry Q. Wood, “Myanmar Asylum Seeker Crisis Needs a Humane and Regional Solution”, The Diplomat.

• “Myanmar: Crackdown on Freedom of Expression with 24-hour Monitoring”, Article 19.

• Anthony Davis, “Myanmar’s widening war headed for junta’s heartland”, Asia Times. 

• Lucas Myers, “Mismanaging Of The Unmanageable: China Tries To Play All Sides In Myanmar’s Metastasizing Civil War”, War On The Rocks. 

• Finally, here’s a nice round-up of the civil war and Myanmar's history.

Q&A

This week, I spoke to Nay San Lwin (@nslwin), co-founder of Free Rohingya Coalition, one of the most prominent and active Rohingya groups internationally. He is based in Frankfurt, Germany. We discussed the European response to the Rohingya genocide, what more can the EU do to support the Rohingya inside and outside Myanmar, and what’s the future of the besieged minority if anti-junta forces prevail.

Could you describe the current conditions of the Rohingya still in Myanmar, especially in light of the junta’s recent forced conscription order? What impact will that order have on the Rohingya when it comes into force?

The current situation of the Rohingya in Rakhine State is deteriorating day by day. Amidst the fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army, there are numerous casualties from the Rohingya side. The Myanmar military indiscriminately shells Rohingya villages, while the Arakan Army camps inside these villages. Since last November, at least 80 Rohingya have been killed, more than 100 injured, and over 200 houses have been burnt down. As the war persists, the Rohingya are encountering numerous difficulties in terms of survival. Currently, even sending money or aid to Northern Rakhine State is impossible. The military's four-cut strategies are highly effective, and people are suffering. While the military is losing ground, conscription is targeting the Rohingya. Over a thousand Rohingya have been forcibly conscripted in three townships: Buthidaung, Sittwe, and Kyaukphyu.

Everyone understands that they are being forced, yet the Rohingya are accused of "the worst betrayal in history" by the Arakan Army. Instead of showing sympathy, accusing them is entirely unfair. On the other hand, the Arakan Army's official statements and leadership's tweets have begun labelling the Rohingya as Bengali, which is even more disheartening. The military's intention is clear. They are using Rohingya youth as human shields and aim to create tension between Rohingya and Rakhine communities, intending to incite communal violence similar to that which occurred in 2012. At least 100 Rohingya youth have been killed on the battlefield. Forced conscription constitutes a form of persecution and is also part of the military's genocidal policy.

The European Union and some European governments have expressed their solidarity with the Rohingya cause, have provided hundreds of millions of euros in humanitarian assistance, and have participated in international courts to try to bring justice for the crimes committed against the Rohingya in 2017. What do you make of the European response to, first, the Rohingya genocide and, second, to the ongoing suffering of the Rohingya in Myanmar or outside the country?

We are grateful to the EU and some European governments for their commitment to providing continuous humanitarian assistance and for participating in the case at the International Court of Justice.

Despite support from the EU, UK, US, and Canada, the refugees are still suffering. The monthly allowance they receive of $10 is insufficient for their survival. The lack of formal education and vocational training means that the youths and children are enduring hardships. All these governments should persuade the Bangladesh government to officially recognise the refugees and grant them refugee rights. Empowering the refugees is far more crucial than merely providing them with an inadequate allowance.

EU governments can urge Bangladesh to create job opportunities for the refugees and invest in sectors that will provide employment for them. Repatriation is uncertain, and while the struggle continues for an indefinite period, the refugees should be afforded every opportunity for survival. Improving livelihood conditions will help eradicate human trafficking and many other issues. All governments should be involved in the repatriation process instead of leaving the matter solely to China, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

What more can the EU and European governments do to help the Rohingya?

The Rohingya deserve justice. While there are cases in international courts, all governments can still refer the situation to the International Criminal Court (ICC), as they did for Ukraine. Additionally, most EU countries have a universal jurisdiction system; therefore, they should prosecute the criminals from Myanmar in their respective courts.

There are tens of thousands of youths who seek further studies. They should be given opportunities, such as being brought to Europe for further education. Although they lack travel documents, EU countries can issue them travel documents and facilitate their relocation for studies.

The EU has been funding various activities in the camps. They should closely observe whether these efforts are genuinely effective in improving the conditions of the refugees. Empowering refugees is crucial. There are thousands of youths capable of contributing significantly if given the chance, and this should be a priority. EU funding must be highly effective. Regarding education, there are a few hundred so-called schools, but they are nothing more than playgrounds. Learning centres run by refugee youths are the most effective and should be supported financially.

The NUG has claimed that it will respect Rohingya rights, and there is a Rohingya deputy minister (Aung Kyaw Moe). Do you trust the NUG on this? And can foreign governments, such as European ones, help to ensure that the NUG sticks to its pledges to integrate the Rohingya into a post-junta federal state?

We appreciate and welcome the position of the NUG that was announced in June 2021. The NUG has been referring to us as Rohingya, unlike the ousted NLD government. However, this did not constitute recognition as an ethnic group. The Rohingya were officially recognised as an ethnic group after Burma gained independence in 1948. What we are asking for is the restoration of our status. The NUG must recognise the Rohingya as an ethnic group. This would solve most of the problems.

Additionally, instead of referring to the crimes committed against us as atrocities, they must acknowledge that the crimes against the Rohingya constitute genocide.

As the Rohingya continue to face genocide, and it is still ongoing, the new constitution of the federal union must guarantee the rights of the Rohingya, including their indigenous (Tai-Yin-Thar) status. Furthermore, it must ensure the swift repatriation of the more than a million genocide survivors who are taking refuge in Bangladesh. Although there are cases in international courts, a proper justice system must be established in the country to ensure that there is no longer impunity.

As the NUG is closely collaborating with governments worldwide to establish a brand-new federal democratic union in Myanmar, all governments should persuade them to include all Rohingya rights significantly by laws. Unlike previous governments, all laws in Myanmar must treat the Rohingya equally.

What role can European governments play in the future to help with the peaceful return of the Rohingya back to Myanmar once the conflict is over? What should be the primary goals/concerns of the European governments?

As of now, China is mediating the repatriation. However, this alone is not enough. We urge all countries involved in this process to ensure the safe return of the refugees. Resettlement of the returnees in their original villages, restoration of their ethnic and citizenship status, freedom of movement, access to education, healthcare, livelihood, etc., are all crucial. To guarantee the basic human rights of the returnees, all countries must demonstrate their concern and willingness to participate in this process.

The land of the Rohingya has been bulldozed. Resettlement needs to commence afresh. To rebuild the lives of the returnees, we require significant investment. The primary goals and concerns of EU governments should focus on the safe and dignified return of the refugees, ensuring they have full protection upon return and access to all necessary amenities.

All of this can be achieved if governments worldwide demonstrate concern and make efforts to ensure that everything is in place for the returnees to lead peaceful lives after enduring a decade-long genocide.