Very little. Myanmar is the Balkans of Southeast Asia, as we're now seeing. Thailand's problem is that the 1932 revolution to a constitutional monarchy was never completed, and Thailand has been left ever since swinging between those who want more monarchism and those who want more constitutionalism.
What are the odds that Myanmar Balkanises by the end of the decade?
Very little. Myanmar is the Balkans of Southeast Asia, as we're now seeing. Thailand's problem is that the 1932 revolution to a constitutional monarchy was never completed, and Thailand has been left ever since swinging between those who want more monarchism and those who want more constitutionalism.